CometNet: Contextual Motif-guided Long-term Time Series Forecasting

📝 Original Info

• Title: CometNet: Contextual Motif-guided Long-term Time Series Forecasting
• ArXiv ID: 2511.08049
• Date: 2025-11-11
• Authors: 정보 없음 (논문에 저자 정보가 제공되지 않음)

📝 Abstract

Long-term Time Series Forecasting is crucial across numerous critical domains, yet its accuracy remains fundamentally constrained by the receptive field bottleneck in existing models. Mainstream Transformer- and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)-based methods mainly rely on finite look-back windows, limiting their ability to model long-term dependencies and hurting forecasting performance. Naively extending the look-back window proves ineffective, as it not only introduces prohibitive computational complexity, but also drowns vital long-term dependencies in historical noise. To address these challenges, we propose CometNet, a novel Contextual Motif-guided Long-term Time Series Forecasting framework. CometNet first introduces a Contextual Motif Extraction module that identifies recurrent, dominant contextual motifs from complex historical sequences, providing extensive temporal dependencies far exceeding limited look-back windows; Subsequently, a Motif-guided Forecasting module is proposed, which integrates the extracted dominant motifs into forecasting. By dynamically mapping the look-back window to its relevant motifs, CometNet effectively harnesses their contextual information to strengthen long-term forecasting capability. Extensive experimental results on eight real-world datasets have demonstrated that CometNet significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, particularly on extended forecast horizons.

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