Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

📝 Original Info

• Title: Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment
• ArXiv ID: 2511.06128
• Date: 2025-11-08
• Authors: ** 제공된 원문에 저자 정보가 포함되어 있지 않습니다. (저자명 및 소속을 알려주시면 해당 섹션을 보완하겠습니다.) — **

📝 Abstract

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.

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