The impact of state capacity on the cross-country variations in COVID-19 vaccination rates

The initial period of vaccination shows strong heterogeneity between countries’ vaccinations rollout, both in the terms of the start of the vaccination process and in the dynamics of the number of people that are vaccinated. A predominant thesis in the ongoing debate on the drivers of this observed heterogeneity is that a key determinant of the swift and extensive vaccine rollout is state capacity. Here, we utilize two measures that quantify different aspects of the state capacity: i) the external capacity (measured through the soft power and the economic power of the country) and ii) the internal capacity (measured via the country’s government effectiveness) and investigate their relationship with the coronavirus vaccination outcome in the initial period (up to 30th January 2021). By using data on 189 countries and a two-step Heckman approach, we find that the economic power of the country and its soft power are robust determinants of whether a country has started with the vaccination process. In addition, the government effectiveness is a key factor that determines vaccine roll-out. Altogether, our findings are in line with the hypothesis that state capacity determines the observed heterogeneity between countries in the initial period of COVID-19 vaccines rollout.

💡 Research Summary

This study analyzes the impact of state capacity on the variations in COVID-19 vaccination rates across countries during the initial period. It examines two measures of state capacity: external capacity (measured through soft power and economic power) and internal capacity (measured via government effectiveness). The research uses data from 189 countries and applies a two-step Heckman approach to address selection bias, investigating how these capacities influence whether a country starts its vaccination process and the dynamics of vaccine rollout.

The findings indicate that a country’s economic power and soft power are significant determinants in initiating the vaccination process. Additionally, government effectiveness plays a crucial role in determining the speed and extent of vaccine distribution. The study supports the hypothesis that state capacity is a key factor behind the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 vaccine rollout across countries during the initial period.

This research underscores the importance of both economic strength and administrative efficiency in managing public health crises effectively, suggesting that enhancing these capacities could lead to more uniform and rapid responses to future pandemics. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to improve their country’s readiness and response capabilities in times of global health emergencies.