An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820

📝 Abstract

Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power is fueling economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, originally, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts energy from food. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and represent a form of stored energy. In the following century, from 1920 to 2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC. Periods of quasi-linearity of the two variables are separated by distinct jumps, which can be interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modeling and for political management of the climate crisis and the energy transition.

💡 Analysis

Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power is fueling economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, originally, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts energy from food. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and represent a form of stored energy. In the following century, from 1920 to 2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC. Periods of quasi-linearity of the two variables are separated by distinct jumps, which can be interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modeling and for political management of the climate crisis and the energy transition.

📄 Content

지난 200년 동안 전 세계에 걸친 역사적 시계열 데이터가 최근에야 비로소 기본 에너지 소비(Primary Energy Consumption, 이하 PEC)와 국내총생산(Gross Domestic Product, 이하 GDP)에 대한 일관된 수치 형태로 제공되기 시작했다. 이러한 새로운 데이터 세트는 과거 산업 혁명 시기부터 현대 까지 각 시대별 에너지 사용량과 경제 규모를 정량적으로 연결할 수 있는 귀중한 기초 자료를 제공한다. 우리는 이 방대한 데이터 베이스에 대해 철저하고 체계적인 통계 분석과 시계열 모델링을 수행한 결과, ‘물리적 에너지가 경제적 에너지를 구동한다’는 가설을 뒷받침하는 새롭고 단순한 거시경제 모델을 제시할 수 있게 되었다.

우선 1820년부터 1920년까지 100년 간의 기간을 중심으로 전 세계 PEC와 세계 GDP 사이에 뚜렷한 선형 관계가 존재함을 확인하였다. 이 선형성은 ‘PEC = a · GDP + b’와 같은 기본 방정식으로 표현될 수 있으며, 여기서 ‘a’와 ‘b’는 시계열 데이터에 기반한 상수값이다. 특히 이 시기 PEC는 주로 비숙련 인간 노동이 식량으로부터 에너지를 소비하고 이를 다른 형태의 에너지(예: 목재, 석탄)로 전환하는 과정을 포함한다는 점이 핵심적인 특징이다. 즉, 인간 노동 자체가 일종의 ‘생물학적 에너지 전환기구’로서 작동하며, 그 결과가 전체 에너지 소비량에 반영된다.

이러한 관점을 일관된 거시경제 모델에 통합하면, ‘물리적 자본(Physical Capital)’과 ‘인적 자본(Human Capital)’ 모두가 PEC에 의해 공급되는 ‘저장된 에너지’의 형태로 해석될 수 있다. 물리적 자본은 기계, 설비, 인프라와 같은 구체적인 자산을 의미하고, 인적 자본은 교육, 기술 습득, 노동력 능력 향상 등을 포함한다. 두 자본 형태는 각각 에너지 저장고와 같은 역할을 수행하며, PEC가 증가함에 따라 동시에 증대한다는 논리적 연결고리를 제공한다.

다음 세기, 즉 1920년부터 2016년까지의 구간에서는 GDP가 PEC보다 상당히 빠른 속도로 성장하는 패턴이 뚜렷하게 나타난다. 이 시기에는 전기 및 석유 와 같은 고에너지 자원 활용이 극대화되고, 대규모 산업 자동화와 기술 혁신이 동시에 진행되면서 ‘GDP ÷ PEC’ 비율이 점진적으로 상승한다. 특히 두 변수 간의 준선형(quasi‑linearity) 구간은 몇 차례의 뚜렷한 점프(jump) 에 의해 분리되는데, 이러한 점프는 ‘급진적인 기술 전환(radical technology shifts)’—예를 들어 내연기관 보급, 전력 망 확장, 디지털 컴퓨팅 혁명 등—에 해당한다는 해석이 가능하다.

GDP와 PEC의 비율, 즉 ‘GDP / PEC’ 는 시간에 따라 누적되는 ‘게임‑체인징(​game‑changing) 혁신’의 지표로서 작동한다. 우리의 분석에 따르면, 이 비율은 평균적으로 ‘PEC에 비례하는 성장률(growth rate proportional to PEC)’을 보이며, 이는 에너지 투입량이 증가함에 따라 경제적 생산성 향상이 비례적으로 증가한다는 관계를 시사한다. 다시 말해, 에너지 효율성의 향상과 신기술 도입이 동시에 진행될 때 ‘GDP / PEC’ 비율은 가파르게 오르는 특성을 보이며, 이는 경제 성장 과정에서 에너지 전환이 핵심적인 동인임을 강조한다.

이러한 연구 결과는 기후 위기와 에너지 전환 문제에 대한 정책적 관리와 모델링에 새로운 대안적 전략을 제시한다. 구체적으로는 ‘에너지 투입량(PEC)을 정밀하게 예측하고, 그에 따라 경제 성장률을 조정하는 거시경제 시뮬레이션’이 가능해지며, 이는 탄소 배출량을 감축하고 지속 가능한 성장을 달성하기 위한 ‘정량적 경로’를 제공한다. 또한, ‘GDP / PEC’ 비율의 점프 패턴을 분석함으로써 정책입안자는 어떤 시점에 ‘기술 혁신 투자’를 집중해야 하는지, 또는 ‘에너지 효율성 향상’에 우선순위를 두어야 하는지를 과학적으로 판단할 수 있다. 궁극적으로 이 모델은 ‘에너지 소비와 경제 성장’이라는 두 축을 통합적으로 고려함으로써 ‘기후 변화 대응’과 ‘에너지 전환’이라는 복합적인 도전을 동시​에 극복할 수 있는 전략적 틀을 제공한다는 점에서 의미가 크다.

요약하면, 전 세계 역사적 PEC 및 GDP 시계열 데이터를 바탕으로 구축된 본 거시경제 모델은 ‘물리적 에너지 → 물리적 자본 · 인적 자본 → 경제적 생산성’이라는 연쇄적인 인과관계를 명확히 보여준다. 1820 ~ 1920년 기간의 선형성, 1920 ~ 2016년 기간의 비선형적 점프와 그에 수반되는 ‘GDP / PEC’ 비율의 누적적 성장은 에너지 투입과 기술 혁신이 경제 성장에 미치는 구조적 역할을 정량적으로 입증한다. 이러한 통찰은 기후 위기 시대에 에너지 전환 정책을 수립하고, 지속 가능한 경제 성장을 도모하기 위한 과학적 근거를 제공함으로써, 미래 사회가 직면한 복합적인 도전과제들을 효과적으로 극복할 수 있는 전략적 지침을 제시한다.