Title: Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the Past Two Million Years Vol. I
ArXiv ID: 1710.01768
Date: 2017-10-06
Authors: Researchers from original ArXiv paper
📝 Abstract
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and wide-spread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading theories: the Demographic Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect. Descriptions of the past socio-economic conditions are not questioned. They might have been harsh, difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories. They did not create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of population. Likewise, impacts of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated that this event had absolutely no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth is formulated and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of economic growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism of growth turns out to be also simple.
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Deep Dive into Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the Past Two Million Years Vol. I.
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and wide-spread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading
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Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia
Explaining the
Mechanism of Growth
in the Past Two
Million Years – Vol. I
The generally accepted fundamental
postulates are contradicted by data
Prof. Ron W. Nielsen
(aka Jan Nurzynski)
2017
Explaining the Mechanism of
Growth in the Past Two
Million Years
Vol. I
The generally accepted fundamental postulates are
contradicted by data
Prof. Ron W. Nielsen
(aka Jan Nurzynski)
Griffith University, Gold Coast, Qld, 4222. Australia
ronwnielsen@gmail.com
2017
How to cite this document: Nielsen, R. W. (2017). Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the
Past Two Million Years: The generally accepted fundamental postulates are contradicted by
data. https://www.scribd.com/document/357954172/Mechanism-of-Growth
Note: The above Website address contains the full version of this document. The size of the file
is 18,896 KB.
Abstract: Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years
are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted
explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect
doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation,
because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and wide-
spread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or
by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even
by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results
published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted
explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the
easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading theories: the Demographic
Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect.
Descriptions of the past socio-economic conditions are not questioned. They might have been
harsh, difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories. They did not
create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of population. Likewise, impacts
of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated
that this event had absolutely no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth
is formulated and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of
economic growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by
exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism of growth
turns out to be also simple.
Contents
Preface…………………………………………………………………………………………….
ii
1.
Scientifically unacceptable established knowledge in demography and in economic
research…………………………………………………………………………………………..
1
2.
Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research………………………
25 3.
Mathematical analysis of the historical economic growth with a search for takeoffs from
stagnation to growth………………………………………………………………………
45 4.
Growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and its link to the economic
growth……………………………………………………………………………………..
65
5.
Demographic Transition Theory contradicted by data…………………………………
75 6.
Unified Growth Theory contradicted by the absence of takeoffs in the Gross Domestic
Product………………………………………………………………………………………………..
89 7.
The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by
data………………………………………………………………………………………………
101
8.
Unified Growth Theory contradicted by the mathematical analysis of the historical
growth of human population……………………………………………………………………..
124 9.
Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita
explained……………………………………………………………………………………
143
10. Mathematical analysis of the historical income per capita distributions………………….
155
11. The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved………………………………..
172
12. The dichotomy of Malthusian positive checks: Devastation and regeneration but not
stagnation………………………………………………………………………………….
194 13. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth and the growth of population
even in the United Kingdom………………………………………………………………
217 14. Mathematical analysis of income per capita in the United Kingdom……………………..
230
15. Interpretations
