On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

📝 Abstract

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F for calculating the time variance Geomag Signal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day Geomag Signal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic when, regional precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of predicted and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the when, where and how earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.

💡 Analysis

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F for calculating the time variance Geomag Signal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day Geomag Signal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic when, regional precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of predicted and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the when, where and how earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.

📄 Content

Open Journal of Earthquake Research, 2015, 4, 102-113 Published Online August 2015 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/ojer http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2015.43010
How to cite this paper: Mavrodiev, S.Cht., Pekevski, L., Kikuashvili, G., Botev, E., Getsov, P., Mardirossian, G., Sotirov, G. and Teodossiev, D. (2015) On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data. Open Journal of Earthquake Research, 4, 102-113. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2015.43010

On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and
Sun-Moon Tide Code Data Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev1, Lazo Pekevski2, Giorgi Kikuashvili3, Emil Botev4,
Petar Getsov5, Garo Mardirossian5, Georgi Sotirov5, Dimitar Teodossiev5 1Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria 2University “Sts. Cyril and Methodius”, Seismological Observatory, Skopje, Macedonia 3Ilya State University, Tbilisi, Georgia 4National Institute for Geophysics, Geography and Geodesy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
Sofia, Bulgaria 5Space Research and Technology Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria Email: schtmavr@yahoo.com

Received 17 July 2015; accepted 24 August 2015; published 27 August 2015

Copyright © 2015 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Abstract In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time pe- riods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vec- tor components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, re- gional” precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliabil- ity of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagu- rishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction prob- lem are shortly described. S. Cht. Mavrodiev et al.

103 Keywords Earthquakes, Geomagnetism, Earth Sun-Moon Tide, Regional Seismic Activity, Forecasting

1. Introduction The problem of “when, where and how” earthquake prediction cannot be solved only on the basis of geodetic data [1]-[6]. The possible triggering of the earthquakes by the tidal has been investigated for a long period of time [7]-[14]. The conclusion that the earthquake’s time is correlated with the tidal extremes is not unique, be- cause in some of the extremes there are no earthquakes. The inclusion of additional information in the analysis, for example the Earth’s electrical currents’ signals, permits one to estimate the most probable time of incoming earthquakes [15]-[17]. As more accurate space and time measuring set for the Earth’s crust condition parameters, including in the monitoring of the measurements of the electromagnetic fields under, on and over the Earth’s surface, the tem- perature distribution and other possible precursors can be useful for the study of the “when, where and how” predictions of earthquakes. For example, in the papers [18]-[20], the possibility for short-term earthquake pre- diction in Greece by seismic electric signals was investigated. The atmospheric and ionosphere electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes were analyzed in many books and papers [21]-[26] and the future direction of the investigation related to earthquake prediction was proposed, as well as its practical application to some events. The papers [27] [28] concern the observations of electromagnetic radiation in the LF and VLF ranges related to the occurrence of an earthquake.
   Тhe paper [29] presents the results of the complex investigation of the variations of crust electrical resistivity as a function of tidal deformations on the basis of an extremely low-frequency radi

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