Imminent earthquake forecasting on the basis of Japan INTERMAGNET stations, NEIC, NOAA and Tide code data analysis
📝 Abstract
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable Schtm with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya (Japan, INTERMAGNET) stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is this with bigest value of the variable Schtm permit to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursors signals like a functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.
💡 Analysis
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable Schtm with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya (Japan, INTERMAGNET) stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is this with bigest value of the variable Schtm permit to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursors signals like a functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.
📄 Content
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Imminent earthquake forecasting on the basis of Japan INTERMAGNET
stations, NEIC, NOAA and Tide code data analysis
Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev
Institute for Nuclear Reasurch and Nuclear Energy, BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria
To be published: Open Journal of Eartquake Research, Vol. 5, N0.1, Feb 2016, ID 2740099
Abstract
This research presentsone possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables - precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field,the boreholes water level, radon earth-surface concentration, the local heat flow, ionosphere variables, low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves.The title demonstrates that only geomagnetic data are used in this study.
Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which useanew variable Schtmwith dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Japan Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya INTERMAGNET stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is this with bigest value of the variable Schtm permit to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursor’s signals like a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point
Thus, in the case ofdata acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the arеa with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation ofimpending earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.
Keywords: Earhquake’s prediction, Reliable earthquake’s precursors, Geomagnetism, Inverse problem
- Introduction
It is well known now that the “when, where and how” earthquake’s prediction problem cannot be solved by analyzing only the earthquakes data base [1]-[5].
The role of the Sun- Moon Earth tides as possible earthquake’s triggerhas been analyzed in [6] - [13]. However the conclusion that the earthquake’s time is correlated with the time of tidal extremesis not exact, because in some cases the beginning and the extremes of earthquakes do not coincide. There is an extreme but not an earthquake.
The role of the atmospheric and ionosphere electromagnetic phenomena which can serve as earthquake’s precursors in the last time has been researched in many studies. 2
Physical models of the phenomena observed were proposed in[14], reliability of predictions were analyzed in [15, 16].
The heat release as earthquake’s precursor was researched in [17].
The variations of regional water-table reflect fast deformational cycles in lithosphere and may also serve as an earthquake’s precursor as one was demonstrated by G.S. Vartanyan [18]. The comparison of the daily geomagnetic fluctuations (geomagnetic quakes) and underground water level demonstrates that borehole water level data may serve as an imminent regional earthquake’s precursor in the Caucasus region [19].
The analysis of data for radon concentrations and its fluctuations in the atmosphere and ground-water has been demonstrated in many studies - see for example [20], [21]. The most accepted result is that anomalous (increased regional concentration) of the radon emission can serve as a precursor of an earthquake.
The research of the correlation between variations of geo-electromagnetic field and impending earthquakes has a long-time history-[22] -[36].
A comparative analysis of the two measured values in time of geomagnetic field with the calculation of the standard deviation (dispersion) in the same subintervals - periods of time allowed offering geomagnetic quake as an earthquake precursor [36].
The calculation of the differences (DayDiff) between the times of the earthquakes occurred in the region around the monitoring point and the nearest time of tide extremes permit to build the distribution of DayDiff. It was established that this distribution is described well by Gauss curve with a certain width Wall.
Introducing a new variable 𝑺ChtM with dimension surface energy density, which is a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance to the monitoring point
𝑺𝑪𝒉𝒕𝑴(𝑴𝒂𝒈, 𝑫𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒉, 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆) and the calculation of its value in the monitoring point permits to classify the earthquakes occurred in the monitoring region and in the time period around tide extremes time.
The distribution of DayDiff for earthquakes with the biggest 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑺𝑪𝒉𝒕𝑴 is also described with Gauss curve, but with less width Wpr.
In the paper [37] the DayDiff for all world’s628873 earthquakes, occurred
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