A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect
📝 Abstract
Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical performance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there is no dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology with rapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies on unfettered technological change is not supported by our results.
💡 Analysis
Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical performance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there is no dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology with rapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies on unfettered technological change is not supported by our results.
📄 Content
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A Simple Extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect Christopher L. Magee Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society,
77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
Tessaleno C. Devezas Faculty of Engineering, University of Beira Interior, 6200-‐001 Covilhã, Portugal Abstract: Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound -‐ increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical performance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there is no dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology with rapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies on unfettered technological change is not supported by our results. Keywords: dematerialization theory; technical performance progress; rebound effect; demand elasticity; Jevons’ Paradox. 1. Introduction: Attempting to answer the basic underlying question and concern of sustainability – whether humans are taking more from the earth than the earth can safely yield-‐ is the main objective underlying the concept of dematerialization. Malenbaum (1978) was one of the first researchers in this area and his key results are still among the most important. He utilized the concept of intensity of use defined as the ratio of the amount of materials (or energy) measured in bulk mass divided by GDP. When plotting intensity of use over time, he found “inverted U curves” peaking at different times in different countries (and for different materials) but at roughly a given GDP per capita for given materials. Also importantly, the peak intensity for a given material reached by subsequently developing countries decreases over time (relative to earlier developing countries). These two regularities are the essence of the conceptual basis for the “theory of dematerialization” according to Bernardini 2
and Galli (1993). These authors speculate that the decreasing maximum intensity over time with usage of materials/energy per GDP might be a positive signal of a real dematerializing trend, but they eventually conclude that the empirical information at that time (1993) were insufficient to draw such a conclusion and suggest further examination of data.
Given the potential importance of the overall sustainability question, it is not surprising that there has been significant valuable work from the dematerialization
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