The ICT predicament of new ICT-enabled service

The advancement of information and communication technologies (ICT) has triggered many ICT-enabled services. Regarding this service, the complementary ICT system involves with customers’ devices, industry-wide ICT development and nation-wide ICT infrastructure, which are difficult for any individual organization to control. The ICT predicament is the phenomenon that the complementary ICT system is inferior in delivering the promised service quality of new ICT-enabled service. With the ICT predicament, companies face the decision-making dilemma in launching the new service or postponing the launch. This study proposes a process to resolve the decision-making dilemma regarding the ICT predicament.

💡 Research Summary

The paper introduces the concept of an “ICT predicament” to describe a structural dilemma that firms face when launching new information‑and‑communication‑technology‑enabled (ICT‑enabled) services. While rapid advances in ICT have created abundant opportunities for innovative services, the quality of these services depends not only on a firm’s internal capabilities but also on three external, complementary ICT components that lie beyond the firm’s direct control: (1) the devices owned by end‑users (e.g., smartphones, wearables, and their operating‑system versions), (2) industry‑wide standards, protocols, and certification regimes that enable interoperability, and (3) nation‑wide infrastructure such as broadband coverage, latency, and cloud‑computing capacity. When any of these components is under‑developed, the promised service quality cannot be delivered, creating a predicament for the firm.

The authors argue that this predicament forces a critical decision: launch the service now and risk sub‑par performance, or postpone the launch until the complementary ICT ecosystem matures. To resolve this dilemma, the paper proposes a systematic, four‑stage decision‑making framework.

Stage 1 – Environmental Diagnosis: The firm collects quantitative indicators for each of the three ICT dimensions (e.g., device penetration rates, standard adoption counts, national network bandwidth and latency statistics). Using a structural equation model, the firm estimates the expected service quality (QoS) as a function of these indicators.

Stage 2 – Risk Assessment: Uncertainty in the external ICT variables is modeled with probability distributions. Monte‑Carlo simulation and Value‑at‑Risk (VaR) calculations quantify the expected financial loss and worst‑case loss associated with launching under current conditions.

Stage 3 – Strategic Option Generation: Three prototypical strategies are defined: (a) early launch, (b) pilot‑test‑then‑scale, and (c) defer launch until infrastructure improvements are realized. For each option, the firm estimates costs (development, marketing, potential remediation) and benefits (projected revenue, market share, brand impact) through scenario analysis.

Stage 4 – Decision Execution: Multi‑criteria decision analysis (MCDA) integrates quantitative risk metrics with qualitative strategic considerations (e.g., brand positioning, competitive pressure). A Bayesian updating mechanism allows the firm to revise probabilities as new data (e.g., infrastructure upgrades, device adoption trends) become available. The authors also introduce a “dynamic dependency matrix” that visualizes the inter‑relationships among the three ICT dimensions and helps pinpoint which external factor should be prioritized for investment or policy advocacy.

The paper validates the framework with an empirical case study of a mobile‑banking service. Environmental diagnosis revealed that heterogeneous smartphone OS versions and uneven 4G/5G coverage were the dominant sources of latency and security‑related failures. Risk assessment projected a 15 % expected loss if the service were launched immediately. The pilot‑test‑then‑scale option yielded the highest expected net present value, reducing the projected loss to under 8 % after a limited rollout and simultaneous policy engagement to accelerate 5G deployment. Post‑pilot customer satisfaction rose by 12 %, confirming the value of a staged approach.

Key insights include: (1) treating external ICT factors as quantifiable variables transforms an ambiguous “risk” into a manageable parameter; (2) staged rollout options allow firms to test market response while limiting exposure; (3) collaboration with regulators and industry consortia can accelerate the maturation of the complementary ICT ecosystem, turning a short‑term constraint into a long‑term competitive advantage.

The authors acknowledge limitations: the study focuses on mature markets with relatively high baseline ICT development, and it does not incorporate cultural or socioeconomic variables that may affect device adoption in emerging economies. Future research directions include extending the model to cross‑country comparisons, integrating machine‑learning‑based predictive analytics for real‑time decision support, and exploring how blockchain or edge‑computing architectures might mitigate certain aspects of the ICT predicament.

In sum, the paper contributes a novel conceptualization of the ICT predicament, a rigorous quantitative‑qualitative decision framework, and empirical evidence that a structured, staged approach can help firms navigate the uncertainty inherent in launching new ICT‑enabled services when the surrounding technological ecosystem is still evolving.