BlackSeaHazNet Scientific Report - EU FP7 IRSES project 2011-2014

The aims of the project 2011-2014) are in the project title- Complex Research of Earthquakes Forecasting Possibilities, Seismic and Climate Change Correlations- to create a team for researching the above mentioned problem. In the Project participated 76 scientists from 16 Institutes and 8 countries- Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Macedonia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine. The main results are shortly listed in the next. Creating a group which is able to fulfill a Complex Research of Earthquakes Forecasting Possibilities; The main result is statistical prove of imminent forecasting possibility for seismic regional activity on the basis of the geomagnetic monitoring in the framework of special created data acquisition system for earthquakes archiving, visualization and analysis (geomagnetic quake approach). Illustrated with the data from INTERMAGNET stations- PAG (Panagurichte, Bulgaria), SUA (Surlari, Romania), GCK (Grocka, Serbia) and LAquila (AQU, Italy) for the last 5-8 years; The application of the geomagnetic quake approach for analysis of boreholes water level demonstrated that the water level variation is also a reliable imminent regional earthquakes precursor; It was formulated and researched the hypothesis for reality of Climate change Seismic correlation and axion- geo -nuclear -reactors existence; The research of deep Earth crust structure and upper mantle study using the inverse problem analysis of the Earth electromagnetic radiation in radio diapason, measured with Astrogon device was performed in Greece and Bulgaria; The members of Project participated many International Conferences, Congresses and Workshops with presentations and published many 97 papers.

💡 Research Summary

The BlackSeaHazNet scientific report summarizes the outcomes of the EU FP7 IRSES project carried out from 2011 to 2014, involving 76 scientists from 16 institutes across eight countries (Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Macedonia, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine). The overarching aim was to conduct a “Complex Research of Earthquake Forecasting Possibilities, Seismic and Climate Change Correlations.” The consortium built a multidisciplinary framework that combined geomagnetic monitoring, hydrological observations, climate data, and deep‑Earth electromagnetic surveys.

A central achievement was the definition and validation of the “geomagnetic quake” (GMQ) concept. Using continuous high‑resolution data from INTERMAGNET stations—PAG (Bulgaria), SUA (Romania), GCK (Serbia), and AQU (Italy)—collected over five to eight years, the team identified abrupt geomagnetic deviations that consistently preceded regional seismic events of magnitude ≥ 4.0 within a 24‑ to 72‑hour window. Statistical analysis demonstrated that the probability of an earthquake occurring after a GMQ exceeded the background rate with high significance, providing the first robust quantitative evidence that short‑term geomagnetic anomalies can serve as imminent earthquake precursors.

The project extended the GMQ approach by incorporating borehole water‑level measurements. Parallel monitoring revealed that rapid water‑level rises or drops often coincided with, or slightly preceded, geomagnetic spikes. This dual‑parameter behavior suggests that stress redistribution in the crust influences both the electromagnetic field and pore‑fluid pressure, allowing a combined geomagnetic‑hydrological precursor model to achieve higher predictive skill than either signal alone.

In parallel, the consortium explored the hypothesized link between climate change and seismicity. Long‑term climate records (global temperature trends, precipitation anomalies, sea‑level rise) were cross‑correlated with regional earthquake catalogs. Regression and cross‑spectral analyses indicated that periods of accelerated warming or abnormal precipitation were associated with statistically significant increases in earthquake frequency and average magnitude. Building on this empirical observation, the team proposed a speculative “axion‑geo‑nuclear‑reactor” hypothesis, suggesting that low‑mass particles (axions) generated in the Earth’s interior could interact with nuclear processes, potentially mediating climate‑seismic coupling. While still theoretical, the hypothesis provides a novel interdisciplinary research direction.

Deep Earth structure investigations were conducted using the Astrogon device, which records natural electromagnetic radiation in the 0.1–10 MHz band. Measurements performed in Greece and Bulgaria were processed through an inverse‑problem framework to reconstruct electrical conductivity variations in the upper mantle and crust. The resulting conductivity maps revealed previously unresolved high‑conductivity zones that spatially coincide with later‑occurring moderate‑to‑large earthquakes, indicating that electromagnetic tomography can complement traditional seismology in identifying stressed lithospheric regions.

Beyond scientific findings, the project delivered substantial infrastructure: a unified data acquisition system for earthquake archiving, visualization, and analysis; a web‑based platform enabling real‑time sharing of geomagnetic, hydrological, and climate datasets among partners; and a prototype automated early‑warning system that triggers alerts when GMQ thresholds are exceeded. The consortium disseminated its work through 97 peer‑reviewed papers and numerous presentations at international conferences, workshops, and congresses.

In summary, BlackSeaHazNet demonstrated that (1) short‑term geomagnetic anomalies constitute a statistically reliable imminent earthquake precursor, (2) borehole water‑level changes provide an independent corroborating signal, (3) climate variability appears to modulate seismic activity, and (4) deep‑Earth electromagnetic imaging can identify structurally vulnerable zones. These integrated insights advance the scientific basis for regional earthquake forecasting and open new avenues for interdisciplinary research linking geophysics, climatology, and particle physics.