Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues

Climate Change and Its Causes A Discussion About Some Key Issues Nicola Scafetta 1,2 1Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) Lab, Coronado, CA 92118, USA 2Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA. Abstract This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model. *************************************************************************************** This work is made of • An translation into English of the paper: Scafetta N., “Climate Change and Its causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues,” La Chimica e l’Industria 1, p. 70-75 (2010); • Several additional supporting notes are added to the paper; • An extended appendix section part is added to cover several thematic issues to support particular topics addressed in the main paper. (not in this preprint) This work covers most topics presented by Scafetta at a seminar at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009. A video of the seminar is here: http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eed.nsf/vwpsw/360796B06E48EA0485257601005982A1#video Cite as: Scafetta N., “Climate Change and Its causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues,” La Chimica e l’Industria 1, p. 70-75 (2010). The full English version with the appendixes can be downloaded from http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/climate change causes.html The Italian version of the original paper can be downloaded (with possible journal restrictions) from http://www.soc.chim.it/files/chimind/pdf/2010/2010 1 70.pdf Preprint submitted to Science & Public Policy (SPPI) October 22, 2018 arXiv:1003.1554v1 [physics.geo-ph] 8 Mar 2010 Figure 1: Global surface temperature (land and sea) HadCRUT3 (red) and its quadratic fit (black). [Climatic Research Unit, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/]. 1. Introduction Since 1900 the global surface temperature of the Earth has risen by about 0.8 oC (Fig- ure 1), and since the 70s by about 0.5 oC. This temperature increase occurred during a significant atmospheric concentration increase of some greenhouse gases, especially CO2 and CH4, which is known to be mainly due to human emissions. According to the Anthro- pogenic Global Warming Theory (AGWT) humans have caused more than 90% of global warming since 1900 and virtually 100% of the global warming since 1970 (Appendix A). The AGWT is currently advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], which is the leading body for the assessment of climate change established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Orga- nization (WMO). Many scientists believe that further emissions of greenhouse gases could endanger humanity [2]. However, not everyone shares the IPCC’s views [3].1 More than 30,000 scientists in America (including 9,029 PhDs) have recently signed a petition stating that those claims are extreme, that the climate system is more complex than what is now known, several 1The AGWT advocates claim that there exists a scientific consensus that supports the AGWT. However, a scientific consensus does not have any scientific value when it is contradicted by data. It is perfectly legitimate to discuss the topic of manmade global warming and closely scrutinize the IPCC’s claims. Given the extreme complexity of the climate system and the overwhelming evidence that climate has always changed, the AGWT advocates’ claim that the science is settled is premature in the extreme. 2 Figure 2: List of radiative forcings held responsible for the global warming since 1750 and used in the models adopted by the IPCC. The figure is adapted from the IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. These forcings are used as inputs of the climate models used by the IPCC to support the AGWT. The table suggests that the total net anthropogenic forcing since 1750 has been 13.3 times larger than the natural forcing. However, labeling on the left of the table, anthropogenic and natural, is misleading because it would imply that only human activity can change the chemistry of the atmosphere, which is non physical. mechanisms are not yet included in the climate models considered by the IPCC and that this issue should be treated with some caution because incorrect environmental policies could also cause extensive damage [3]. This article briefly summarizes some of the rea- sons, mostly derived from my own research, why the science behind the IPCC’s claim is questionable.2 2On November 19, 2009 a climategate story erupted on the web. This story is seriously undermining the credibility of the AGWT and of its advocates. Thousands of e-mails and oth

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