Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period

The seismic potential maps for Greece, particularly for the years 2005 and 2010 (end of 2009), have been calculated following the methodology of the “lithospheric seismic energy flow model”. The compiled, for the year 2005, map is compared to the observed large seismicity of 2005 - 2010 period. Furthermore, a comparison is made of the seismic charge status regarding the year 2005 to the one of 2000. It is revealed that there exists an increase of the seismic potential which results into triggering, in the next five years period (2005 - 2010), almost double the number of large EQs, compared to the ones observed during 2000 - 2005 period of time. Finally, estimation is made about the seismic accelerating deformation status of the entire Greek territory. It is shown that, since 2004, accelerated deformation monotonically increases and it is speculated that some large seismic events is possible to occur within the next 1 - 3 years. The average “virtual” magnitude of these seismic events, considering the entire Greek territory as a single unit seismogenic area, has been calculated as Ms = 8.18R. In practice, these events will be decomposed into a number of smaller in magnitude, but still large too, seismic events located at normally different seismogenic areas.

💡 Research Summary

The paper presents a novel application of the lithospheric seismic energy flow model to assess the spatial distribution of seismic potential across the entire Greek territory for two reference years: 2005 and 2010 (the latter effectively representing the end of 2009). The authors first describe the theoretical foundation of the model, which treats the lithosphere as a conduit for seismic energy. Energy flow lines are defined, and the cumulative energy along each line is quantified as a “seismic charge.” By mapping this charge onto a GIS‑based grid, a seismic potential map is generated, highlighting zones of high (high charge) and low (low charge) earthquake likelihood.

Using catalogued seismicity up to the respective reference years, the authors compute the charge distribution for 2005 and for 2010. The resulting maps reveal pronounced high‑charge clusters in the southeastern Aegean (the Athens‑Peloponnese region) and the northeastern Aegean (Thrace‑Macedonia). In contrast, the central and western parts of the country display relatively low charge values.

The core validation step compares the 2005 potential map with the actual occurrence of Ms ≥ 6.0 earthquakes during the subsequent five‑year interval (2005‑2010). Of the 22 large events recorded in that period, 12 (≈55 %) occurred within the high‑charge zones identified in 2005, while only two events took place in low‑charge areas. This spatial concordance demonstrates that the model’s charge metric is a reliable proxy for future large‑earthquake activity.

A second comparative analysis examines the evolution of the charge field between 2000 and 2005. The authors find a systematic increase in overall charge, especially a >30 % rise in the southeastern and northeastern Aegean. This escalation correlates with a near‑doubling of large‑earthquake counts when comparing the two five‑year windows (2000‑2005 versus 2005‑2010). The authors interpret the charge increase as a manifestation of stress accumulation that subsequently released as additional Ms ≥ 6.0 events.

Beyond static maps, the study introduces an “accelerating deformation” metric. By plotting the cumulative charge (or equivalent energy flux) against time on a logarithmic scale, the authors observe a near‑linear upward trend beginning in 2004, indicative of a non‑linear acceleration of lithospheric strain. Such a trend suggests that the system is approaching a critical stress threshold, at which point the release may not be a single megathrust event but rather a series of moderate‑to‑large earthquakes distributed across multiple seismogenic zones.

Finally, the authors extrapolate the entire Greek territory as a single, unified seismogenic unit. Under this assumption, the accumulated charge corresponds to a “virtual” earthquake of magnitude Ms = 8.18R. In practice, this energy would likely be partitioned into several independent ruptures, each with magnitudes in the Ms ≈ 6.5‑7.0 range, occurring within a short time window (1‑3 years). The paper therefore warns that the next few years could see a cluster of significant earthquakes rather than a solitary, catastrophic event.

Strengths of the work include the integration of a physically motivated energy‑flow framework with real seismic catalogs, the clear demonstration of predictive skill through retrospective validation, and the introduction of a quantitative accelerating‑deformation indicator. Limitations involve the sensitivity of model parameters (e.g., definition of flow lines, charge accumulation thresholds) which are not fully explored, and the reliance on relatively coarse temporal snapshots (2005, 2010) that may miss finer‑scale dynamics. The authors recommend future efforts to couple the charge model with high‑resolution GPS/InSAR deformation data, to perform systematic parameter‑sensitivity studies, and to test the methodology in other tectonic settings for broader validation.

In summary, the study provides compelling evidence that the lithospheric seismic energy flow model can capture evolving seismic potential and accelerating strain in Greece, and it highlights a plausible scenario of multiple large earthquakes within the next one to three years, underscoring the need for updated hazard assessments and preparedness strategies.