Tunguska-1908 and similar events in light of the New Explosive Cosmogony of minor bodies

The well-known Tunguska-1908 phenomenon (TP) problems (the fast transfer of the kinetic energy of the meteoroid W~10-50 Mt TNT to air, with its heating to T>10^4 K at an altitude of 5-10 km, the final turn of the smoothly sloping, ~0-20^o to horizon, trajectory of the body through 10^o to the West, the pattern and area of the tree-fall and trees’ scorching by heat radiation, etc.) allow a simple solution within the New Explosive Cosmogony (NEC) of minor bodies, as opposed to other approaches. The NEC considers the short-period (SP) comet nuclei, to which the Tunguska body belonged, to be fragments produced in explosions of massive icy envelopes of Ganymede-type bodies saturated by products of bulk electrolysis of ices to the form of a 2H2+O2 solid solution. The nearly tangent entry into the Earth’s atmosphere with V20 km/s of such a nucleus, ~200-500 m in size and ~(5-50)x10^12 g in mass, also saturated by 2H2+O2, initiated detonation of its part of ~10^12 g at an altitude of 5-10 km. This resulted in deflection of this fraction trajectory by 5^o-10^o, and fast expansion with 2 km/s of its detonation products brought about their fast slowing down by the air, heating of the latter to T>10^4 K and a phenomenon of high-altitude explosion. On crossing the Earth’s atmosphere, the main part of the unexploded nucleus escaped into space, and this body moving presently in an SP orbit should eventually be identified in time. Its impact with W250-3000 Mt TNT on the Earth’s surface (which could occur in 1908) would have produced a crater up to ~3.5-8 km in size, with an ejection of dust that would have brought about a climatic catastrophe. The processes involved in the TP are resembling those accompanying falling P/Shoemaker-Levy 9 onto Jupiter and, possibly, the impact-caused Younger Dryas cooling ~13 ka ago.

💡 Research Summary

The paper tackles the long‑standing puzzle of the Tunguska‑1908 event by invoking the New Explosive Cosmogony (NEC), a framework that treats short‑period comet nuclei as fragments produced in the explosive disruption of massive icy envelopes surrounding Ganymede‑type bodies. According to NEC, these icy envelopes become saturated with a solid solution of 2H₂ + O₂ as a result of bulk electrolysis of water ice. When the electrolysis products reach a critical concentration, the envelope undergoes a catastrophic explosion, shedding fragments that inherit a substantial load of the explosive mixture.

The authors argue that the Tunguska body was one such fragment, roughly 200–500 m in diameter and weighing (5–50) × 10¹² g, still containing a large amount of the 2H₂ + O₂ solid solution. Its entry trajectory was almost tangent to the Earth’s surface (0–20° to the horizon) with a velocity of about 20 km s⁻¹. At an altitude of 5–10 km, aerodynamic heating and mechanical stresses triggered the detonation of roughly 10¹² g of the embedded explosive material. The detonation produced a rapidly expanding cloud of gases moving at ~2 km s⁻¹, which was abruptly decelerated by the surrounding air. This deceleration heated the air to temperatures exceeding 10⁴ K, creating the observed high‑altitude explosion and the intense thermal radiation that scorched and felled trees over a 2,150 km² area.

The reaction also generated a reaction‑force impulse that deflected the detonated fraction of the body by 5°–10° toward the west, accounting for the observed change in azimuth. The remaining, still‑explosive nucleus survived the atmospheric passage and escaped back into space. Because the fragment originated from a short‑period comet, the authors predict that the surviving core now follows a short‑period orbit and should be detectable with modern survey telescopes or radar facilities.

If the intact core had impacted the surface instead of escaping, the released energy would have been on the order of 250–3,000 Mt TNT, sufficient to excavate a crater 3.5–8 km in diameter and to inject massive quantities of dust and chemically active gases into the stratosphere, potentially triggering a climatic catastrophe. The authors draw a parallel with the impact of comet Shoemaker‑Levy 9 on Jupiter, where fragments of an icy body entered a giant planet’s atmosphere at high speed, detonated, and produced high‑temperature plumes. They also suggest that a similar mechanism could underlie the Younger‑Dryas cooling event (~13 ka ago), hypothesizing that a smaller explosive comet fragment may have struck Earth, causing rapid atmospheric changes.

To test the NEC hypothesis, the paper proposes a multi‑pronged observational program: (1) systematic searches for the predicted surviving fragment in near‑Earth space using optical, infrared, and radar surveys; (2) spectroscopic analysis of atmospheric residues from the 1908 event, looking for anomalous ratios of hydrogen and oxygen that would betray the decomposition of a 2H₂ + O₂ solid; (3) high‑resolution modeling of the detonation dynamics to reproduce the observed tree‑fall pattern, light curve, and acoustic signatures. The authors conclude that NEC offers a coherent explanation for the combination of high‑altitude explosion, trajectory deflection, and asymmetric tree‑fall that has eluded conventional impact models, and that further observational work could either substantiate or falsify this novel cosmogonic scenario.