A hypothesis of earth quake

arXiv:0805.3868v6 [physics.geo-ph] 16 Jul 2008 A hypothesis of earth quake Yeong-Shyeong Tsai Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung,Taiwan Abstract Without a model, it is impossible for a geophysicist to study the possibil- ity of forecasting earth quakes. We will define a quantity, the event-degree, in this paper. The quantity plays an important role in the model of quakes forecasting. In order to make a simple model, we make a hypothesis of earth quakes. The hypothesis is: ”(i) There are two kinds of earth quakes, one is the triggered breaking (earth quake), the other is spontaneous breaking (earth quake). (ii) Most major quakes in continental plates such as Eurasian Plate, North America Plate, South America Plate, Africa Plate and Australia Plate are triggered breaking. (iii) These triggered quakes are triggered by the evolution of high pressure centers and low pressure centers of the atmosphere on the plates. (iv) How can the evolution of the high pressure centers trigger a quake in quantitative sense? It depends on the event-degree, the extent of the high pressure center, the rate of evolution of event-degree and the the degree of stored energy for reaching breaking point.” The scale of earth is so large that can not be obtained in the laboratory. Compare to a hurricane, the power of a tornado is very small though the surface force which is produced by a tornado on the ground is devastated. compare to the high pressure of atmosphere, the surface force which is pro- duced by a tornado is too tiny. Therefore, the surface force which is produced by a high pressure center of atmosphere might be the trigger of quake. Introduction Formosa, Taiwan, is located at the boundary of two plates, Eurasian plate and Philippine Plate. Therefore, the frequency of quake is very high. There are more than 4000 quakes in a year. Only few of them are felt quakes. Compare to the felt quakes, most of these quakes can be considered as noises in the sense of signal processing. From the view-point of the weather map, Formosa is located in the subtropical zone. Roughly speaking, there are only two seasons: one is dry season and the other is rainy season. From February to October is rainy season and hence the other period is dry season. Strictly speaking, the rainy season is from February to July. In this period, Pacific high pressure center is comparable to Mongolia high pressure center. These two high pressure centers confront each other and the boundary of these two centers passes through the region near by Formosa. The boundary is 1 called front. During the rainy season, there many fronts which are built and pushed to southeast and then the front will die out in several days. Usually, the last front will stay one, two, three or four weeks. The rainy days happen randomly from the middle of July to October because they are introduced by typhoons. Though the history of Taiwan is more than 8000 years, the data collected by residents is available in the nearest 400 years. People were not afraid of quake because they were used to the quakes and the houses were made of bamboos and grasses. The people cared about the weather because most Taiwans were farmers 100 years ago. When dry season is too long it becomes draught. When rainy season is too long there will be no harvest and, even worse, it will flood. The starting point and the ending point of rainy season is not predictable. It might come earlier or later. There was not weather forecasting center at that time, 400 years ago. It seems that the quakes have nothing concern with the weather. Actually, it might not be true. From the experiences of Taiwans, a connection between these two natural phenomena, quakes and weather. A Controversial Issue It is unbelievable that they can predicted the starting point and ending point of the rainy season one day before. Why and how can they predict these points one day before? We find that they have got a rule: if there is quake, then this quake is a turning point of of two seasons, changing rainy season to dry season or changing dry season to rainy season. The author have tested rule for 50 years. From the view-point of science or, more precisely, statistics, this is an empirical rule really. Here we should stress that these quakes are strong felt quakes. This shows the evidence that there is correlation between weather and quake. Since we have been confused by this rule, we analyze the data of weather carefully. We get a rough conclusion: On contrary, we can use this rule to predict the quake. Of course, this must be controversial issue. We think the conclusion is reasonable and it is harmless at least. So far, though there many methods for predicting quakes, none of them gives a scientific basis or model. What we mean science is a method or procedures which can be repeated or, more precisely, verified in any time and at any place. Since the quake recorders are so sensitive that we must ignore most of the col

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