We report on an experimental investigation into opportunities for parallelism in beliefnet inference. Specifically, we report on a study performed of the available parallelism, on hypercube style machines, of a set of randomly generated belief nets, using factoring (SPI) style inference algorithms.
Spiegelhalter and Lauritzen [15] studied sequential learning in Bayesian networks and proposed three models for the representation of conditional probabilities. A forth model, shown here, assumes that the parameter distribution is given by a product of Gaussian functions and updates them from the _
From the existing research it has been observed that many techniques and methodologies are available for performing every step of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system, but the performance (Minimization of Word Error Recognition-WER and Maximization of Word Accuracy Rate- WAR) of the methodology
Data fusion allows the elaboration and the evaluation of a situation synthesized from low level informations provided by different kinds of sensors. The fusion of the collected data will result in fewer and higher level informations more easily assessed by a human operator and that will assist him e
Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a variety of techniques which can facilitate the process of struc
This paper introduces a method for predicting the likely behaviors of continuous nonlinear systems in equilibrium in which the input values can vary. The method uses a parameterized equation model and a lower bound on the input joint density to bound the likelihood that some behavior will occur, suc
Initial contours of the non-standard approach to reception of the answer of any task on discrete structures are considered: the algorithm independently creates such answer from separate fragments.
Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference under uncertainty. We emphasize a common type of prediction t
Uncertainty enters into human reasoning and inference in at least two ways. It is reasonable to suppose that there will be roles for these distinct uses of uncertainty also in automated reasoning.
This paper examines the quantities used by MYCIN to reason with uncertainty, called certainty factors. It is shown that the original definition of certainty factors is inconsistent with the functions used in MYCIN to combine the quantities. This inconsistency is used to argue for a redefinition of c
In our previous series of studies to investigate the role of evidential reasoning in the RUBRIC system for full-text document retrieval (Tong et al., 1985; Tong and Shapiro, 1985; Tong and Appelbaum, 1987), we identified the important role that problem structure plays in the overall performance of t
This project is part of the development of mobile CRM. It aims to develop a management application client named NOMALYS. This application allows the commercial and business leaders to see their CRM Mobile. We have focused in this project on the techniques of projects management, this study allowed t
Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the conclusions are much weaker than those computed from complete pro
Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different strategies for explaining probabilistic reasoning: The first, qualita
This paper describes the architecture of R&D Analyst, a commercial intelligent decision system for evaluating corporate research and development projects and portfolios. In analyzing projects, R&D Analyst interactively guides a user in constructing an influence diagram model for an individual resear
A series of monte carlo studies were performed to compare the behavior of some alternative procedures for reasoning under uncertainty. The behavior of several Bayesian, linear model and default reasoning procedures were examined in the context of increasing levels of calibration error. The most inte
We describe how we selectively reformulate portions of a belief network that pose difficulties for solution with a stochastic-simulation algorithm. With employ the selective conditioning approach to target specific nodes in a belief network for decomposition, based on the contribution the nodes make
This paper outlines a methodology for analyzing the representational support for knowledge-based decision-modeling in a broad domain. A relevant set of inference patterns and knowledge types are identified. By comparing the analysis results to existing representations, some insights are gained into
PAGODA (Probabilistic Autonomous Goal-Directed Agent) is a model for autonomous learning in probabilistic domains [desJardins, 1992] that incorporates innovative techniques for using the agent's existing knowledge to guide and constrain the learning process and for representing, reasoning with, and
This paper demonstrates a methodology for examining the accuracy of uncertain inference systems (UIS), after their parameters have been optimized, and does so for several common UIS's. This methodology may be used to test the accuracy when either the prior assumptions or updating formulae are not ex
When eliciting probability models from experts, knowledge engineers may compare the results of the model with expert judgment on test scenarios, then adjust model parameters to bring the behavior of the model more in line with the expert's intuition. This paper presents a methodology for analytic co
The trajectory of a robot is monitored in a restricted dynamic environment using light beam sensor data. We have a Dynamic Belief Network (DBN), based on a discrete model of the domain, which provides discrete monitoring analogous to conventional quantitative filter techniques. Sensor observations a
In this paper, we introduce a novel situation aware approach to improve a context based recommender system. To build situation aware user profiles, we rely on evidence issued from retrieval situations. A retrieval situation refers to the social spatio temporal context of the user when he interacts w
One topic that is likely to attract an increasing amount of attention within the Knowledge-base systems research community is the coordination of information provided by multiple experts. We envision a situation in which several experts independently encode information as belief networks. A potentia
Nowadays, many vegetables are grown insidegreenhouses in which environment is controlled and nutrition can be supplied through water supply using electrical pump, namely fertigation. Dosage of nutrition in water for many vegetable plants are also known so that by controllingwater supply all the need
Reasoning under uncertainty in Al hats come to mean assessing the credibility of hypotheses inferred from evidence. But techniques for assessing credibility do not tell a problem solver what to do when it is uncertain. This is the focus of our current research. We have developed a medical expert sys
The practice of stochastic sensitivity analysis described in the decision analysis literature is a testimonial to the need for considering deviations from precise point estimates of uncertainty. We propose the use of Bayesian fuzzy probabilities within an influence diagram computational scheme for p
Network analysis provides a powerful framework for the interpretation of genome-wide data. While static network approaches have proved fruitful, there is increasing interest in the insights gained from the analysis of cellular networks under different conditions. In this work, we study the effect of
In this article we present two ways of structuring bodies of evidence, which allow us to reduce the complexity of the operations usually performed in the framework of evidence theory. The first structure just partitions the focal elements in a body of evidence by their cardinality. With this structu
This paper considers the problem of invoking auxiliary, unobservable variables to facilitate the structuring of causal tree models for a given set of continuous variables. Paralleling the treatment of bi-valued variables in [Pearl 1986], we show that if a collection of coupled variables are governed
Competitive interactions represent one of the driving forces behind evolution and natural selection in biological and sociological systems. For example, animals in an ecosystem may vie for food or mates; in a market economy, firms may compete over the same group of customers; sensory stimuli may com
By probabilistic logic I mean a normative theory of belief that explains how a body of evidence affects one's degree of belief in a possible hypothesis. A new axiomatization of such a theory is presented which avoids a finite additivity axiom, yet which retains many useful inference rules. Many of t
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is c
In this paper we explore representations of temporal knowledge based upon the formalism of Causal Probabilistic Networks (CPNs). Two different ?continuous-time? representations are proposed. In the first, the CPN includes variables representing ?event-occurrence times?, possibly on different time sc
We introduce and analyze the problem of the compilation of decision models from a decision-theoretic perspective. The techniques described allow us to evaluate various configurations of compiled knowledge given the nature of evidential relationships in a domain, the utilities associated with alterna
This paper presents the development of the architecture of Distributed Network Intrusion Detection System.
This study examined the effects of 'tuning' the parameters of the incremental function of MYCIN, the independent function of PROSPECTOR, a probability model that assumes independence, and a simple additive linear equation. me parameters of each of these models were optimized to provide solutions whi
To operate intelligently in the world, an agent must reason about its actions. The consequences of an action are a function of both the state of the world and the action itself. Many aspects of the world are inherently stochastic, so a representation for reasoning about actions must be able to expre
The agile approach uses continuous delivery, instead of distinct procedure, to work closer with customers and to respond faster requirement changes. All of these are against the traditional plan driven approach. Due to agile method's characteristics and its success in the real world practices, a num
This paper addresses the tradeoffs which need to be considered in reasoning using probabilistic network representations, such as Influence Diagrams (IDs). In particular, we examine the tradeoffs entailed in using Temporal Influence Diagrams (TIDs) which adequately capture the temporal evolution of a
This paper introduces conceptual relations that synthesize utilitarian and logical concepts, extending the logics of preference of Rescher. We define first, in the context of a possible worlds model, constraint-dependent measures that quantify the relative quality of alternative solutions of reasoni
Conventional molecular dynamics simulation has been used to determine melting temperature of highly compressed classical molecular hydrogen in a wide range of pressures and temperatures using non-empirical atom-atom potentials approximation. It is shown that the raise of melting temperature with inc
Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling methods can be statistically classified as either parametric or nonparametric (NP). Each classification can be divided into maximum likelihood (ML) or Bayesian (B) approaches. In this paper we discuss the nonparametric case using both maximum likelihood and B
Two algorithms are presented for 'compiling' influence diagrams into a set of simple decision rules. These decision rules define simple-to-execute, complete, consistent, and near-optimal decision procedures. These compilation algorithms can be used to derive decision procedures for human teams solvi
The use of maximum entropy inference in reasoning with uncertain information is commonly justified by an information-theoretic argument. This paper discusses a possible objection to this information-theoretic justification and shows how it can be met. I then compare maximum entropy inference with ce
In the multicore era, the time to computational results is increasingly determined by how quickly operands are accessed by cores, rather than by the speed of computation per operand. From high-performance computing (HPC) to mobile application processors, low multicore utilization rates result from t
This paper discusses how a measure of uncertainty representing a state of knowledge can be updated when a new information, which may be pervaded with uncertainty, becomes available. This problem is considered in various framework, namely: Shafer's evidence theory, Zadeh's possibility theory, Spohn's
This paper describes recent work on an ongoing project in medical diagnosis at the University of Guelph. A domain on which experts are not very good at pinpointing a single disease outcome is explored. On-line medical data is available over a relatively short period of time. Belief Functions (Dempst
In previous work we developed a method of learning Bayesian Network models from raw data. This method relies on the well known minimal description length (MDL) principle. The MDL principle is particularly well suited to this task as it allows us to tradeoff, in a principled way, the accuracy of the
In this paper, we suggest marrying Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory with Knowledge Representation (KR). Born out of this marriage is the definition of 'Dempster-Shafer Belief Bases', abstract data types representing uncertain knowledge that use DS theory for representing strength of belief about our know
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